Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Communication, Conflict and Decision-Making Essay - 1

Communication, Conflict and Decision-Making - Essay Example This essay discusses that in every society, communication is the backbone of professional and social relationships. Communication facilitates the flow of ideas and/or concepts from one given source to the other. The best process of communication needs the existence of a message sender, as well as the receiver. Individuals share the views and ideas through the thriving process of communication. For any communication process to be regarded as thriving, the receiver must comprehend the message content in accordance with the sender’s aim. This means that certain processes of communication lead to unsuccessful ends. Thus, it is worth noting that communication process encounters some hindrances that deter efficient information delivery to the anticipated parties. No matter the effort put in to evade a conflict, it appears to always arise at the worst moments. Thus, ineffective communication leads to a conflict of views or ideas among the parties involved. During communication, confl ict begins from a merely simple flicker of emotions or varies all the way to supportive proof that one presents. While conflict may lead to both positive and negative impacts, this social disagreement may boost maturity of social abilities among the individuals involved. Conflict management involves the application of measures that promote the advancement of positive effects forms a social discord. Efficient conflict management process promotes learning among parties involved and the entire society on how to address incompatible vies in the future.

Sustainability of Seventeen Event Company Essay - 1

Sustainability of Seventeen Event Company - Essay Example As a concept, Sustainability can be defined as the â€Å"the growing concern for the environment and natural resources, though...[it]...has also had increasing resonance in social and economic issues.† (Mowforth and Munt,2009, p18). Academic, political and economic circles have begun to seriously consider the implications of unrestricted economic growth on the already stretched resources of the earth. The agenda is motivated by the understanding that the planet may not be able to cope up with the demands of the growth unless drastic measures are taken to support the processes with more environmentally friendly practices and technology. The burden of change in this area falls largely to businesses and economic groups as they are the main consumers of many of the natural, human and financial capital resources available currently. While governments and lobbying groups can provide much-needed direction and policies to guide the businesses towards sustainable practices; inevitably it is the businesses themselves that must show awareness and concern regarding the issue and make changes from the ground level as they have a greater reach and influence than any single consumer possibly could have.   It is not surprising that societal expectations from both local and international stakeholder are now forcing businesses towards a higher level of accountability and transparency with regards to not just their financial performance but also their role as a social participant in economic, social and environmental development (Sherwood, 2007). While responses have varied, businesses, especially in the consumer-centric, western markets, have responded to these responsibilities with efforts to be operationally eco-efficient, and incorporate social responsibility into their overall operations.

Monday, September 9, 2019

Human Resource Management & Information Management (MBA) pro 4 Essay

Human Resource Management & Information Management (MBA) pro 4 - Essay Example The company has to align its business to n effective IS response giving it significant ground in the market. The IS that Brady Corporation was currently operating on did not support its business model since it made use of antique systems that were unable to communicate. As such, the IS response taken for the greater good of the business was to undertake a complete overhaul of the entire business processes of the company on a global scale, as well as, enabling them digitally. The results were phenomenal, with an annual revenue growth of 15%, a 2% reduction in operating expense, and an increase in internet orders by 50%. The roll out was successful because both the managers and employees had prior knowledge over its importance. Furthermore, the best people got the privilege of spearheading the change process, whereby all the processes mapped with their experts and owners. As such, this spectacular achievement answered the authors question on whether Brady Corporation could redesign its systems for success. The change from old processes to new processes enabled the corporation to revamp its profitability, as well as, re-establish its position in the

Sunday, September 8, 2019

Module 1 Small Scale Evaluative Study Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Module 1 Small Scale Evaluative Study - Essay Example Evaluation in schools is of interest to various stakeholders in the education sector i.e. the government, parents, teachers, media and the wider society (Bracey 2006). Government inspectors have in many cases taken the roles of evaluation on schools’ performance in many countries although the new trend that is widely gaining prominence is that of schools doing self evaluation. Inclusion is one of the aspects of self evaluation that has been seen to have a wide range of positive outcomes if well implemented and it is for this reason that this paper shall seek to further on its impact on the evaluation process and how this can be facilitated by the SENCo (Swaffield and MacBeath 2005). It is a basic understanding that leadership should not be detached from the organs it is leading and it is for this reason that the process of inclusion is quite important in the cases of self evaluation for schools. All the stakeholders mentioned above need to work together and share ideas as evaluation is mostly the basis for school improvement and appraisal of standards of education. Valuable outcomes have been seen to crop up in instances where the school management and the various stakeholders come together and give ideas or good as well as bad areas that need improvement and how best to do it. SENCo has the best chance and has their work well organised when such a scenario is in the offing. On basic terms the teaching staff for example should monitor leaning activities, manage performance of pupils, conduct department reviews and become actively involved in improvement and development activities of the school. Students with special needs have various disabilities that affect their learning and for this reason there are more aspects that need to be looked into more than the case would be in other schools. This is quite an interesting aspect to explore into and the findings of this paper shall come from various methods

Saturday, September 7, 2019

Ideas of Nietzsche on Religion Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Ideas of Nietzsche on Religion - Essay Example Why did Nietzsche have a lunatic say the words? How does it affect modern society? Doubtless, Nietzsche sought to find another source of human values, some source deeper than the Christian faiths. He saw Christianity as having no philosophical system on which to base our lives. Thus, he believed that Christianity has a tendency to limit the creativity of man. Nietzsche’s statement about God’s death did not quickly change the course of history. The Christian churches still exist, just as he prophesied they would, at least for a few hundred years. Nietzsche said, â€Å"God is dead; but given the way of men, though there still may be caves for thousands of years in which his shadow will be shown.† (Section 108) Perhaps he had a madman elicit the words because he believes that we humans destroyed God ourselves by our life styles. (Nietzsche Section 125) Any value system based on Christianity or other metaphysical element will become protective of its teachings and consider nonbelievers to be unworthy of being listened to. Yet, Nietzsche, himself, said the same words himself later, in the same book.

Friday, September 6, 2019

The Indian Economy Essay Example for Free

The Indian Economy Essay 1. Introduction This paper will highlight economic issues facing the Indian Government and its ability to maintain high levels of growth by outlining the current conditions of the economy. Policy dilemmas and logic to address these dilemmas will be explored. Analysis of key indicators and statistics as well historical reference and the theory behind their execution will underlay chosen policies which will be followed by a brief conclusion. 2. The Indian Economy The Indian Economy is listed as the fifth largest in the world at . 538 trillion US (CIA 2010) and has been able to continue high GDP growth despite the Global Financial Crisis. The country has also moved along a steady path of economic reform and liberalisation since 1990 including privatisation and foreign investment. India is a ‘planned’ economy which follows a series of targets for each five year period, the Eleventh Five-Year plan (Planning Commission (Government of India) 2007) ending in 2012 aimed to increase and maintain growth at 10% (to double by 2017), create new employment for 70 million people, raise real wages for unskilled workers and consider education and infrastructure. The next five year plan needs to consider economic factors below that may restrict the high levels of growth. There is also an emergence of a two-speed economy emanating between the service sectors employed middle and high income earners with those in agriculture and manufacturing (FitzGerald 2011). Figure 2.1 (TradingEconomics.com 2011) Figure 2.1 shows India’s strong trend for growth since 2002 and despite a small decrease in growth rate following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, a major policy issue therefore is maintaining strong economic prosperity. The government has to consider several factors that are a risk to this aim such as a large budget deficit, high inflation and unemployment, all shown in figure 2.2. | Percentage| | Government Debt| 55.9| of GDP| Inflation| 11.7| Increase per Year| Unemployment| 10.8| of Labour Force| Figure 2.2 Key Indicators 2010 (CIA 2010) Sustainable growth can be achieved by the Indian Government if it can address these issues both in the short and long term. Therefore the focus is to  consider reducing and stabilising inflation, restructure and increase employment and return the budget to surplus. Debt The current Government Debt in India is around 60% of GDP (TradingEconomics.com 2011; CIA 2010) which puts debt near $1 trillion US. This is an important consideration as it affects the ability of government to embark on public spending necessary to address improvements in infrastructure, education and manufacturing which can help maintain the high growth levels in the long run. High debt and exchange rates can also affect foreign investment which is rich in the services sector, attributing 55.3% of GDP and only 34% of the Labour market (The World Bank 2009; CIA 2010), a focus on improving education and shifting employment into the services sector therefore becomes an important direction for both reduction of unemployment and maintaining supply of labour. Wage prices would be kept at a competitive level compared with other outsourcing countries and overall GDP levels. Debt can also create a lower credit rating and the ability to pay back loans, defaulting on a loan can have widespread negative implications to sustaining growth in the economy. Inflation Inflation is the reduction in the value of money and is 11.7% in India(CIA 2010). High Inflation is a concern because it breads uncertainty in the economy for business, consumers and other investors. This is explained as money being the scale by which an economy can be measured, if the metric of the measurement is uncertain different ideas are formed about how and where money is spent or even if it is spent at all. It also affects the distribution of money across society which is an economic concern in India, high levels of inflation are notable in Food, Manufacturing Prices and Fuel(BBC 2011). Unemployment Unemployment estimates in 2010 of around 10% (TradingEconomics.com 2011; CIA 2010) become an important policy consideration. Indirectly the economy is burdened with the costs such as health and crime however more direct issues include social welfare, loss of production and therefore taxable income. India has one of the world’s largest labour forces of around 480 million (CIA 2010) full employment would assist the ability to match aggregate  demand increases with aggregate supply in the long terms. India could continue growth and manage sustainable inflation in the long term to reach the potential GDP levels. Figure 2.3 shows the overall break down of employment sector with its contribution to GDP. | % Labour Force| % GDP| Agriculture| 52| 16.1| Industry| 14| 28.6| Services| 34| 53.3| Figure 2.3 Economic Sectors Labour/GDP (The World Bank 2009) The policy consideration for Government should be to increase the efficiency of the agriculture sector and move employment into the Industry and Services sector in the long run, including a focus on self-employment which is becoming an unattractive option for younger generations (AZAD India Foundation 2010). 3. Policy Direction Policy recommendations for the Government of India have one overall aim, to maintain strong growth. Three major economic conditions for this focus on, reduction of Government Debt, stability of inflation and addressing high unemployment. 4.1 Monetary Policy Monetary Policy has recently been engaged by the Central Bank and Government in a contractionary manor in an attempt to slow down the inflation growth that has been gripping India. The long term effect of increase to interest rates is to reduce aggregate demand. Figure 3.1 highlights an inflationary hike trend since 2008 which peaked in January 2010. Figure 3.1 India Inflation (TradingEconomics.com 2011) Identifying the cause of inflation is a primary agenda before deciding how effective Monetary will be. While India is experiencing increased AD, interest rates are aligned to but not an overall effect of price increases and in the long run reduce the sustained high growth levels. As seen in Figure 3.2, Interest rate increases are not correlating directly with long term inflationary decreases. Figure 3.3 Interest Rates (TradingEconomics.com 2011) There are three cost-push inflation causes that could explain the peaks and sustained recent high inflation levels of around 11% (CIA 2010). Brent Crude Oil Index Oil is a highly utilised commodity for India and its price can directly affect aggregate supply figure 3.2 Shows a correlation to hikes in Oil price compared with inflation. In January 2008 oil prices began to climb however as the GFC began to take hold, global demand for reduced and prices fell. As India was maintaining strong local Aggregate Demand however inflation was still high. Figure 3.3 Brent Crude Oil (TradingEconomics.com 2011) Domestic Food and Manufacturing Prices Secondary inflation hikes noticed in 2010 do not directly correlate to oil prices. During a poor Food harvest in 2009 as a result of a poor monsoon season (The Economic Times 2009) compounded by international food supply contractions and price rises in the manufacturing sector (BBC 2011) supply side shocks and marginal rise in oil prices can attribute to high inflationary levels. The effects of the supply shocks would be noted in the shift from AS1 to AS2 with prices rising in the short term. However as India GDP has continued to increase year on year, this can only be explained by an increase in Aggregate Demand from AD1 to AD2 shown in Figure 3.3 of a dynamic AS/AD model for India. Point C is India’s potential GDP in 2009 and Point D for 2010, the economic policy should be aimed towards reaching these targets. Monetary policy, in the short run would assist the reduction of AD to curve inflation however to reach LRAS2, other policies must be considered. Interest rate rises should be put on hold and decreased if the economy can recover from supply shocks allowing AS/AD to shift towards potential GDP. Figure 3.3 Dynamic AS/AD for India (figures from (TradingEconomics.com 2011))(McTaggart, Findlay, and Parkin 2010; Hubbard et al. 2011; Misistry of Statistics and Progamme Implementation 2011) 4.2 Fiscal Policy Understanding the complexities of the supply side issues for India is a must for Government to address long term inflation and employment. Investment in agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure will most likely form the basis of the Twelfth Five-Year plan (2point6billion.com 2011). Agriculture can increase and sustain output by advancements in farming practise and technology which is also true of the manufacturing sector. In order for the government investment not to compound Aggregate Demand and multiply into further inflation, taxation of the middle and higher income tax brackets is an option. Already highlighted is the disparity between the size of each sector and the share of its GDP, these expenditures would therefore shift demand from the higher earning service sector into agriculture and industry, with a positive knock on effect of an increase in employment in these areas. | % Labour Force| % GDP| Agriculture| 52| 16.1| Industry| 14| 28.6| Services| 34| 53.3| Figure 3.4 Economic Sectors Labour/GDP (The World Bank 2009) Investment in education, fundable by higher taxation levels can also be aimed to assist the long term shift away from agriculture and into the industry and services sector. Infrastructure is also a key investment consideration to reduce costs of production to all sectors of the economy and sustain ever increasing energy needs. This is also required to avoid the widening of the ‘two-speed’ economy and should be avoided as not to become reliant on one sector of the economy, addressing the balance and disparity can help create a diverse, shock absorbent Indian future. Why would this help stabilise inflation and reduce unemployment? * Cost push inflation and supply side shock impacts would be reduced in the long term * Investment in agricultural and manufacturing practice would allow for a closer match of Aggregate Supply with Aggregate demand * Shifting employment from Agriculture into Industry and Services sector would reduce unemployment * Long term government can divert funds from unemployment resource and taxation into reduction of the Government Debt 4.3 Exchange Rate – Exports and Imports The balance of trade is in deficit of 7.2% (see figure 3.5) however this may not be a major issue for the economic growth of India. The difficulty in policy decision remains the valuation of the Rupee and its impact on a number of variables. High rupee value impacts exports and is approximately 44.6 rupee to $1 US; a primary focus area is industry which could become a viable source of employment for the 10.8% of people not in work. Continuing to increase interest rates will have two impacts; direct foreign investment will be more attractive. Such things as new iron ore and petroleum mining ventures would become possible, however if the Rupee value is too high the export of this and other exportable goods becomes less attractive. Figure 3.5 Components of GDP as a Percentage (Misistry of Statistics and Progamme Implementation 2011) Focused on the aim of sustained high growth, export of services is only 6.6% of GDP however as the Services sector accounts for 55% of industry composition and consumption accounts for 58.3% of GDP, decrease of the ability to export services would reduce private consumption, a direct impact on growth. Export of Goods would also increase if the Rupee were to weaken and address the balance of trade. The government is strongly advised to allow mining and large manufacturing projects to begin and allow the export of these commodities to economies like China. Comparative cost of labour and production would give India a very competitive selling price in the global market and shift employment from agriculture (and the unemployed) into the manufacturing industry. 4. Conclusion The economy of India is very strong in the current global climate of uncertainty and the challenge for the Government is to maintain that level of growth. Managing economic uncertainties that can cause the economy to fail in its aims are extremely important. Understanding the supply side causes of inflation and the possible negative effect of monetary policy to combat it should be realised. Therefore fiscal policy to increase investment in the agriculture and manufacturing industries is recommended to remove disparity and level the ‘two-speed’ economy. High levels of inflation and unemployment do not align to the Phillps principle of inflation (McTaggart, Findlay, and Parkin 2010) however at present there may be a need to absorb these pressures in the short term. To some degree the economy may be experiencing stagflation as it has a much higher potential GDP threshold. In conclusion, there are other factors such as corruption and economic management that if resolved could drastically reduce debt and disparity between all sectors of society. 5. References 2point6billion.com. 2011. India’s 12th Five Year Plan to Focus on ‘Inclusive Growth’. http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2011/04/25/indias-12th-five-year-plan-to-focus-on-inclusive-growth-9151.html (accessed 02/07/2011). AZAD India Foundation. 2010. Unemployment in India. http://azadindia.org/social-issues/Unemployment-in-India.html (accessed 10/04/2011). BBC. 2011. India wholesale inflation rate rises more than expected. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13761784 (accessed 26/06/2011). CIA. 2010. India. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html (accessed 22/06/2011). FitzGerald, B. 2011. Two-speed economy killing industry, warns steel maker. http://www.theage.com.au/business/twospeed-economy-killing-industry-warns-steel-maker-20110221-1b2k1.html (accessed 29/06/2011). Hubbard, G., A. M. Garnett, P. Lewis, and A. P. OBrien. 2011. Essentials of economics. McTaggart, D., C. Findlay, and M. Parkin. 2010. Economics. 6 ed. 6 vols. Vol. 6. Misistry of Statistics and Progamme Implementation. 2011. National Accounts Statistics.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

The Decision-Making Process at Toyota

The Decision-Making Process at Toyota â€Å"The minor assessment is centred around Toyota’s annual report. Each student is expected to submit a case report, based also on the analysis of relevant background readings in addition to the case study itself, addressing the following issues:  · Explain what is meant by the term â€Å"decision-making† and analyse it in connection with the concepts of risk and uncertainty.  · Discuss the decision-making process at Toyota.  · Briefly analyse the automotive industry and explain how its dynamics influence Toyota’s managers in making decisions.  · Apply forecasting models to Toyota case study (e.g. provide a 2-year moving average graph using sales data).† Table of contents Introduction: The decision-making process 1 Risks and uncertainties in decision-making process 2 Case study: Decision-making process at Toyota 3 Automotive industry analysis 4 Influence of automotive industry in Toyota’s decision making process 5 Financial analysis 6 Forecasting model: 2-year moving average graph 7 Forecasting model: weighted moving average and exponential smoothing 8 Conclusion: Toyota heading towards Sustainable Growth 9 References and Sources 10 Introduction: The decision-making process We can define decision-making, as a conscious and human process, involving both individual and social phenomena, an ongoing process of evaluating alternatives for meeting an objective. A particular course of action to select that course of action most likely to result in attaining the objective. The decision-making process allow us to raise our vision beyond our immediate concerns and, in turn, allow us to evaluate our existing beliefs an actions in a new light in order to make an important and useful decision. Achieving an objective requires action leading to a desired outcome. In theory, how one proceeds should inevitably affect what one achieves, and in turn this should affect future actions. Risks and uncertainties in decision-making process The ability of a firm to absorb, transfer, and manage risk is critical in managements decision-making process when risky outcomes are involved. This will often define managements risk appetite and help to determine, once risks are identified and quantified, whether risky outcomes may be tolerated. For example, many financial risks can be absorbed or transferred through the use of a hedge, while legal risks might be mitigated through unique contract language. If managers believe that the firm is suited to absorb potential losses in the event the negative outcome occurs, they will have a larger appetite for risk given their capabilities to manage it. Managing uncertainty in decision-making relies on identifying, quantifying, and analyzing the factors that can affect outcomes. This enables managers to identify likely risks and their potential impact. Decision makers are used to assessing risk because decision-making is usually associated with some degree of risk taking, but not all outcomes are easily assessed. Some unknown outcomes may not previously have been seen or experienced and so they are uncertain. In theory the outcome may have a low probability to occur but if so would happen it could be troublesome. So it is important for every company, especially in ever changing and competitive markets to deal with risks using a ever-better decision-making process. All of the decisions anyhow are taken by individuals so the strategy for risk avoidance is tied in with a personal reference point. Of course it’s fundamental nowadays, for big corporations, to have extremely good employees in this department. The skills and needs of the decision-maker and the role of the decision within an organization, the importance of the risk analysis will depend on the objectives of the decision. A wise approach to decision-making might seek contributions from different angles. The importance placed on data analysis, management skills, organizational awareness, and custom and practice in the assessment of risk would be vital. In this field of course with any doubt Toyota is one of the finest players in the market, with a top notch decision-making process. Case study: Decision-making process at Toyota Automotive industry analysis The worldwide automotive market is highly competitive. Toyota faces intense competition from automotive manufacturers in the markets in which it operates. Although the global economy continues to recover gradually, competition in the automotive industry has further intensified among difficult overall market conditions. In addition, competition is likely to further intensify due to continuing globalization in the worldwide automotive industry, possibly resulting in further industry reorganization. Factors affecting competition include product quality and features, safety, reliability, fuel economy, the amount of time required for innovation and development, pricing, customer service and financing. Increased competition may lead to lower vehicle unit sales, which may result in a further downward price pressure and adversely affect Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations. Toyota’s ability to adequately respond to the recent rapid changes in the automotive ma rket and to maintain its competitiveness will be fundamental to its future success in existing and new markets and to maintain its market share. There can be no assurances that Toyota will be able to compete successfully in the future. That’s the risk connected with every business activity. Through this uncertainties Toyota has to deal with a top-notch management. Each of the markets in which Toyota competes has been subject to considerable volatility in demand, so the risk is becoming even higher year after year affecting all business decisions. Demand for vehicles depends on social, political and economic conditions in a given market and the introduction of new vehicles and technologies. As Toyota’s revenues are derived from sales in markets worldwide, economic conditions in such markets are particularly important to Toyota. In Japan, the economy gradually recovered due to increasing personal consumption and last-minute demand encouraged by the increase of the consumption tax. In the United States, the economy has seen constant gradual retrieval mainly due to increasing personal consumption and the European economy has shown signs of recovery too. In the meantime, growth in emerging markets slowed down due to weakening currencies of emerging markets, increases in interest rates of emerging markets to protect the local currencies, and political instability in some nations. The shifts in demand for automobiles is continuing, and it is unclear how this situation will transition in the future. Influence of automotive industry in Toyota’s decision making process Toyota’s future success depends on its ability to offer new innovative competitively products that meet customer demand on a timely basis. Their corporate DNA is headed to continuous innovation and ensure that tomorrow’s Toyota is even better than today’s. Toyota’s current management structure is based on the structure introduced in April 2011. In order to fulfill the Toyota Global Vision, Toyota reduced the Board of Directors and decision-making layers, changing the management process from the ground-up, facilitating rapid management decision-making. In April 2013, Toyota made organizational changes with the goal of additional increasing the speed of decision making by clarifying responsibilities for operations and earnings. In detail Toyota’s group divided the automotive business into the following four units —Lexus International (Lexus business); Toyota No. 1 (North America, Europe and Japan); Toyota No. 2 (China, Asia the Middle East, East Asia Oceania; Africa, Latin America the Caribbean); and Unit Center (engine, transmission, and other â€Å"unit†-related operations) Meeting customer demand by introducing attractive new vehicles and reducing the amount of time required for product development are critical to automotive producers. In particular, it is critical to meet customer demand with respect to quality, safety and reliability. The timely introduction of new vehicle models, at competitive prices, meeting rapidly changing customer preferences and demand is more fundamental to Toyota’s success than ever, as the automotive market is rapidly transforming in light of the changing global economy. Toyota has to be ready for every occasion to occur in this ever changing global economy. Toyota’s managers every year are taking under consideration every occasion to happen. Within a managerial decision-making context, a risk might be viewed as the chance of negative outcome for a decision which has a possible uncertainty element, usually on the downside. Financial Analysis In terms of finances, the carmaker boosted its profit forecast for the current fiscal year ending March, expecting net income to rise to 2.0 trillion yen ($16.97 billion, 14.7 billion euros). It also said revenue would come in at 26.5 trillion yen. Toyota Motor Corporation had revenues for the full year 2014 of 25.692tn. This was 16.44% above the prior years results. Regarding the competition between Toyota, Volkswagen and ford, top players in the market, Toyota is average a positive trend. Moreover Toyota has the highest income since the year 2009. Forecasting model: 2-year moving average graph Forecasting model: weighted moving average and exponential smoothing We could use instead different methods. The moving average is a simple method that doesn’t take in in consideration the weight or real value that a number has. In fact to overcome this issue we can adopt the â€Å"weighted moving average method† and the â€Å"exponential smoothing method†. Using the â€Å"weighted moving average method† I take under considerations 3 years, which I consider the most important. The value of weights it is based on the percentage growth every year. Using weighted moving average, we can have a better forecast. However, it is more important for a better forecast to use the exponential smoothing method. Here I take in consideration all of the years moving from 2008. Found out that the smoothing factor is pretty high, 0.99. I took under consideration 0.9 as my alpha because in this particular case higher alpha means that the recent history will have more weightage in the forecast calculation. As we can see from page 26/68 I took under consideration Toyota’s Consolidated Performance (U.S. GAAP). I think that the last one is the most appropriate method to see a realest forecast for the next year. Of course the calculation has been made â€Å"ceteris paribus† so everything it is supposed to be the same next year, but as showed before this particular market is subject to constant changes. For this reason and other random errors the forecast could be higher or lower, but however we can obviously see a positive trend in Toyota’s business. Thanks to the tireless efforts of all concerned, today Toyota’s group can take pride in the strengths of its management practices and culture. Even its president is convinced that they are now in a position to take a definitive step forward toward sustainable growth. Conclusion: Toyota heading towards Sustainable Growth So is Toyota heading towards a sustainable growth? What is the engine for sustainable growth? Toyota has learned from experience that they can achieve sustainable growth only if they manage to create great cars that bring smiles and if they foster the human resources needed to make this a reality. At the same time, ever-better cars can be produced only through efforts made by employees on the front line. Individuals must take ownership of their work and place the utmost emphasis on local manufacturing, swift decision making, and immediate action. As it continues to grow however, tasks that were once routine may become increasingly difficult to perform. As I see it, Toyota’s current situation is particularly critical as we are now entering another expansion phase. This is a really important moment for Toyota. For this, because of the risks associated with the future Toyota should continue to seek perfection in his work of manufacturing, but especially in its management process where the decision-making process takes a fundamental part. References and sources For further readings†¦ Ken Segall, Insanely Simple, the obsession that drives Apple’s success, Published by Portfolio Trade, 2013 Robbins, De cenzo Coulter, Fundamentals of management, Global edition, 8th Edition, Pearson Higher Education, (2014 version) Burns and Stalker, The management of innovation, Tovistock Publications, London, 1961 Some internet sites†¦ ADAPT OR DIE, by John S. McCallum – Ivey Business Journal about management [accessed November 18, 2014] http://iveybusinessjournal.com/topics/strategy/adapt-or-die#.VGvDZDSG_ng 1